DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS ESSAY

Date post: 2017-09-09 10:07

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 7567-68, a weak La Niñ a is favored in the dynamical model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. Several models indicate a period of near-average Niñ o- values in the upcoming weeks, but then predict reinvigorated growth of negative SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing easterly wind anomalies across portions of the Pacific Ocean and the reservoir of below-average subsurface temperatures. In summary, La Niñ a conditions are favored (~55-65 87 ) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 7567-68 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 8-month period).

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